The battle for 2009 Lok Sabha elections needs to be watched carefully in some states. Some of these states would hold the key to who will form the next government. Small or big, each state has become the battleground in itself and this is what the 2009 Lok Sabha will be all about. In the event of neither the UPA nor the NDA getting the majority, parties which are part of the Third Front could tilt the balance by either joining the either of the two alliance or by extending outside support. The rise of regional parties and decline of national parties had changed the arena of politics. How voters in Tamil Nadu will vote on May 13th, it is nobody’s guess. There are signs of rising popularity of Jayalalithaa, but that may not be enough for AIADMK. The AIADMK contesting elections alone would need big swing in its favour to convert her popularity into seats. Given the electoral history of the state, it is likely that Jayalalithaa may be able to sweep the elections and would emerge as a strong political force within the third front. But will DMK be able to prevent Jayalalithaa from sweeping the elections and help UPA in this number game? The alliance of Congress with Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal has helped in uniting the opposition against the Left. The 82.3 per cent index of opposition unity after the alliance would certainly put the Left Front on the backfoot. The rising popularity graph of Mamata Banerjee on one hand and dipping popularity of the Left Front among the urban poor would certainly affect the electoral prospect of the Left in West Bengal, which had won 35 of the 42 Lok Saba seats during the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. But the question is – Can the Congress-TMC win half of the seats? A 5 per cent swing against the Left Front in the state can change the entire results. The inability of the Congress and the Samajwadi Party to form an alliance in UP would certainly help Mayawati. With 24.6 per cent votes, the BSP had won 19 Lok Sabha seats during the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. It is important to note that the BSP improve its vote share to 30.4 per cent during the last Assembly elections. If BSP manage to corner 30 per cent votes in the four-cornered contest in the state, it could easily win about 40 Lok Sabha seats. With sizeable number of MP’s, she would command her position within the Third Front. The question is – Will she remain part of the Third Front after the elections or will she join either of the two big alliances, the UPA or the NDA after elections?