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Shinde's Operation Tiger: A Political Struggle on Two Fronts
Eknath Shinde's growing alliance with the BJP's central leadership has positioned his faction as an attractive option for local politicians, raising his influence in both state and national politics. Political analyst Sanjay Patil remarked,
“After this, Eknath Shinde’s political and bargaining power will increase in the state as well as in the Centre.”In contrast, Uddhav Thackeray is grappling with a challenging scenario, particularly following disappointing results in local body elections, which have dampened morale within Shiv Sena (UBT).
Political strategist Jaidev Dole noted that Shinde's rise could also present him as a formidable Maratha leader, while the revival of Shiv Sena (UBT) appears increasingly unlikely. A recent meeting called by Shiv Sena (UBT) saw a significant lack of attendance, with only one Rajya Sabha MP and three Lok Sabha MPs showing up, which further consolidates Shinde’s position. Although a letter has been submitted to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla regarding the induction of six MPs, sources indicate that legal formalities are still pending.
Should the merger proceed, Shinde’s faction would dominate the ruling Mahayuti coalition with 13 MPs from Maharashtra, outnumbering the BJP's 9. Shiv Sena MP Naresh Mhaske expressed optimism:
“Yes, definitely it will bolster our position in Mahayuti and state politics.”This growth is seen as crucial for the upcoming 2029 elections, as Shinde's faction has been actively courting MPs from Shiv Sena (UBT) since the split in West Bengal’s Trinamool Congress.
Shinde's strategy, dubbed 'Operation Tiger' by party insiders, gained momentum as dissatisfaction with Thackeray's leadership became apparent. As one leader stated,
“We knew that their leaders were not happy with Uddhav Thackeray... We all believe in Shinde’s leadership.”Meanwhile, Patil suggests that the political contest is more about the rivalry between Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Shinde than Thackeray himself, with Shinde aiming to solidify his role within the NDA following TMC defections.
Rural Maharashtra, particularly Marathwada, is becoming increasingly significant to Shinde's party, where traditional Shiv Sena strength is being challenged. Dole emphasized,
“After Ajit Pawar, Shinde is the biggest Maratha face in the state.”This shift indicates that Maratha leaders are uniting behind Shinde, who is focusing on rallying young Marathi leaders and influential contractors.
One insider recalled a year ago when Uddhav Thackeray visited Delhi; the same MPs showed reluctance to associate with him publicly while maintaining cordial relations privately. However, last week, those MPs who once promised loyalty switched allegiance. A source revealed that all six MPs had participated in a recent video conference, pledging to stay with Thackeray, leading to shock when they ultimately deserted him.
For Uddhav Thackeray, reconstructing the party is set to be a formidable task. Analysts point out that the current climate could cause party members to prioritize their own interests over organizational unity, an area where the Thackerays have struggled. In response, Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut asserted,
“It doesn’t bother us. We have gone through many such rebellions in the past and a job of the party is to rebuild it.”
Critics of the Thackerays have cited a failure to gather adequate feedback from constituents as a significant issue in revitalizing the party. Dole reflected on the lack of visibility from Uddhav and Aditya Thackeray, especially in light of the health concerns that have limited Uddhav’s constituency visits. Attempts to reach Aditya Thackeray for comment yielded no response.
Despite dissenting views among party leaders, some argue that Uddhav's engagement in rallies during the 2024 election cycle demonstrates ongoing commitment. According to another senior leader,
“These are just excuses, the MPs wanted to leave, they left.”A recurring theme among defectors is confusion over the party's ideological stance, with questions arising regarding Thackeray's alignment between Hindutva and secularism. Raut has publicly stated,
“Our ideology is clear, our Hindutva is clear.”However, some analysts warn that the current turmoil could lead to further fragmentation within the ranks of those loyal to Thackeray, as the stakes in this political battle continue to rise.
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