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Unrest in PoK: A Turning Point for Pakistan and an Opportunity for India
What started as a demand for basic necessities and reliable electricity has transformed into widespread protests across Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The situation has escalated to the point where Islamabad has deployed heavily armed police to suppress the unrest. The Jammu and Kashmir Awami Action Committee (JAAC), which is spearheading these demonstrations, has put forth a comprehensive 38-point Charter of Demands. However, in a misguided response, the government banned the group just last week.
The current unrest can be traced to a combination of economic hardships, a lack of political representation, and discontent with Islamabad's interference in local matters. Among the demands articulated by the JAAC are grievances over refugee issues in PoK and the government's insistence on reserved assembly seats that do not reflect the region's needs. As New Delhi observes these developments, there are strategic actions it can take to engage the people of PoK, who, despite living under occupation, are as much a part of India as any citizen in Jammu and Kashmir.
In April 2019, India's Ministry of Home Affairs halted trade with PoK at designated border points due to concerns over the smuggling of illegal goods. While these concerns are valid, no new measures have been implemented to facilitate legal trade since then. Resuming trade could be a vital lifeline for PoK residents facing food shortages and repression from Islamabad.
Challenging the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
India should also consider diplomatic and military strategies to disrupt infrastructure projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The 1963 Sino-Pakistan Boundary Agreement ceded territory in the Shaksgam Valley to China, a move that India has long deemed illegal. With Article 6 of the agreement stating that the border is provisional, India maintains its claim over PoK and opposes any changes to the region's status quo by either Pakistan or China.
Heightened vigilance along the border is crucial, especially as Islamabad may resort to deploying militants and other non-state actors to distract PoK citizens from their grievances. The ongoing protests signal a growing frustration among the populace in PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan, but it would be misleading to interpret this unrest as an immediate desire to join India.
Local Aspirations for Reform
While many protesters are vocal about seeking socio-economic reforms and greater autonomy from Pakistani control, their primary aim is not necessarily to align with India. There is, however, a notable willingness among sections of civil society in PoK to connect with India for political and economic betterment. Despite the 24 seats reserved for PoK representatives in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly, none have been filled, presenting an opportunity for the Indian government to nominate members from PoK to encourage people-to-people contact.
Ultimately, the forces keeping Pakistan united—neither religion nor ideology nor military might—are faltering. The people yearn for a system that respects their aspirations and cultural ties, much like the secular democracy India embraced in 1947. A gradual realization of the past's futility may be dawning on various groups across the border, paving the way for India to assert a unifying national identity.
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